Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7e9…ee46 sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,182 (-15%) realized −$5,176 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%50W / 81L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,231
crypto 5% −$129
finance 1% −$18
other 1% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 50% +30.3%
≤30d 6 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 50% +30.3%
≤90d 81 -22.0% -29.4% 27% 11% -18.2%
all 131 -12.4% -20.7% 38% 27% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 27% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 21% -20.5%
15% -35.3% 19% -28.2%
20% -41.6% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$76 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$5,176
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses50 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$260
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 72¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $87 +$113 +129%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $64 +$76 +120%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $54 +$26 +48%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $12 −$5 -37%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 04 $102 −$6 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 04 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 04 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 04 $21 −$2 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $109 −$6 -5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners May 04 $134 +$7 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $208 −$9 -4%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 04 $152 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 04 $185 −$31 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $11 −$4 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 04 $30 −$1 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers May 04 $111 −$8 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 03 $11 −$4 -35%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins May 03 $40 −$3 -8%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $340 −$4 -1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 03 $172 −$34 -20%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $232 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 03 $390 −$10 -3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $147 −$1 -1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 03 $527 −$15 -3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs May 03 $435 −$112 -26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $321 −$22 -7%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 03 $35 −$1 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 03 $301 −$79 -26%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $448 −$85 -19%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $557 +$349 +63%
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Zverev May 03 $73 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) May 03 $174 +$29 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $52 −$15 -29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners May 03 $624 +$213 +34%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 03 $739 −$11 -1%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $348 +$20 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? May 03 $2 $0 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers May 03 $247 −$78 -32%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $370 −$290 -78%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $280 +$13 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 54¢ $27 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $43 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $0 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $48 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 49d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 49d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL No 13¢ $9 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL Yes 86¢ $12 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? SELL Yes 88¢ $12 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 49d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.40 · official $65.40 (match) · 3500 history records