Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C7
0xc7e5…2d3a
sports · 978 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$60,321 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$83,078 · open +$14,403
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$88,671
Realized−$83,078
Unrealized+$14,403
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses312 / 831
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2,693
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1143 / 978
History coverage64d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 47 History 1143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149,672
7 days−$121,276
14 days−$101,886
30 days−$88,784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 64¢ 88¢ $25,620 $35,064 +$9,443 (+37%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 86¢ $5,430 $7,962 +$2,532 (+47%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $7,516 $7,077 −$440 (-6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $4,920 $5,883 +$963 (+20%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 65¢ $5,440 $5,419 −$21 (-0%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 34¢ 47¢ $2,206 $3,068 +$861 (+39%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $2,419 $2,377 −$42 (-2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2,280 $2,168 −$112 (-5%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 39¢ $824 $2,145 +$1,321 (+160%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,469 $2,050 +$580 (+40%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,815 $1,679 −$136 (-7%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,018 $1,610 +$592 (+58%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,318 $1,456 +$138 (+10%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 52¢ $596 $1,172 +$576 (+97%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,000 $1,027 +$27 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 29¢ 32¢ $875 $992 +$117 (+13%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1,415 $820 −$596 (-42%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,500 $781 −$718 (-48%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 63¢ 68¢ $658 $721 +$63 (+9%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $660 $630 −$30 (-5%)
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $468 $534 +$66 (+14%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $644 $517 −$127 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $458 −$42 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 20¢ 28¢ $250 $344 +$94 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $250 $292 +$42 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Heat (-7.5) Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Ohio State Buckeyes (-2.5) Jun 14 $348 −$348 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Lions (-7.5) Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Jun 14 $1,149 −$1,149 -100%
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 229.5 Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Devils vs. Stars Jun 14 $800 −$800 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-12-05? Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-3.5) Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Devils vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Jun 14 $343 −$343 -100%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas Longhorns Jun 14 $0 −$395 -490541%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Spread: Saint Louis Billikens (-8.5) Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 14 $245 −$245 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $197 −$197 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $587 −$587 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-7.5) Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5 Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Wild vs. Kings Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-3.5) Jun 14 $980 −$980 -100%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Grand Canyon Antelopes Jun 14 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
76ers vs. Nets Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $244 −$244 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 14 $414 −$414 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
Pacers vs. Clippers Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% +$69,665
sports 33% +$12,541
other 9% −$979
tech 6% +$3,085
world 5% +$2,090
economics 0% −$88
finance 0% −$210
crypto 0% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 1m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $203 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $203 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 7¢ $68 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $200 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $586 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 3¢ $32 5h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 2¢ $7 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $150 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,020 5h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,020 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $257 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $153 10h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 10h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $152 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $152 10h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $152 10h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $102 10h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $152 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $500 11h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $250 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $658 11h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 40¢ $1 11h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 40¢ $3 11h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $152 12h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $390 12h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 53¢ $152 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 -71.1% -73.8% 10% 9% -57.1%
≤30d 560 -34.0% -40.3% 23% 22% -35.7%
≤90d 1143 -16.2% -24.2% 27% 27% -26.6%
all 1143 -16.2% -24.2% 27% 27% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 27% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 26% -33.7%
15% -38.0% 26% -40.1%
20% -44.1% 26% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88,671.48 · official $88,677.03 (match) · 3500 history records