Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc7df…7f82 crypto 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,447 (-6%) realized −$1,438 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%72W / 71L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$132
14 days+$132
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,067
other 27% −$196
sports 14% −$291
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 45% -0.7%
≤30d 24 -25.8% -32.8% 46% 42% -4.7%
≤90d 92 -22.0% -29.4% 49% 41% -23.6%
all 143 -15.3% -23.3% 50% 45% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 45% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 39% -23.8%
15% -37.4% 29% -31.1%
20% -43.5% 19% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$84 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$1,438
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)143 / 149
History coverage94d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 55¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 39¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$16 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$52 +109%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $156 +$44 +28%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $116 +$75 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $88 −$23 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 +$40 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$41 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 18 $91 +$85 +93%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) Jun 18 $138 +$74 +53%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 17 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $102 +$27 +27%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5 Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 23 $560 −$544 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $307 −$180 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 23 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 23 $709 −$667 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 23 $477 +$127 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 23 $327 +$64 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 23 $279 −$117 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 23 $303 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 23 $470 +$26 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 23 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 23 $64 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 23 $463 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 23 $81 +$6 +8%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 214.5 Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Apr 23 $30 +$20 +68%
Suns vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5 Apr 23 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 22 $201 +$128 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $160 −$22 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 22 $84 +$33 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 41m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 41m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 16¢ $10 44m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $25 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 26h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 78¢ $2 45h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 78¢ $154 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $9 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.00 · official $199.40 (match) · 2151 history records