Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc7dc…1ab9 sports 1051 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$420 (+0%) realized +$419 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%1015W / 34L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$56
other 33% +$219
politics 7% +$40
crypto 3% +$17
tech 3% +$60
economics 2% +$38
finance 2% +$12
world 2% −$29
weather 1% +$4
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -22.3% -29.7% 71% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 23 -26.5% -33.5% 70% 0% -10.9%
all 1049 -1.0% -10.5% 97% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$26 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$3,407
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1015 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1049 / 1051
History coverage558d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1049 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3,386 $3,387 +$1 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $3,399 +$3 +0%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 29 $40 $0 +1%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $260 $0 +0%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $3,100 +$3 +0%
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5 May 29 $345 −$183 -53%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5 May 29 $236 −$145 -61%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Major US official out by April 30? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5 May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 29 $54 $0 +0%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 May 29 $60 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 29 $93 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $118 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $3,706 +$22 +1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $3,695 +$7 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 29 $1,188 +$1 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 29 $1,583 +$3 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets finish with the best record in the NBA? Mar 26 $1,115 +$4 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? Mar 20 $997 +$2 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers have the worst record in the NBA? Mar 18 $2,129 +$3 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers have the worst record in the NBA? Mar 14 $1,563 +$2 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers have the worst record in the NBA? Mar 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic have the worst record in the NBA? Mar 07 $3,667 +$4 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers have the worst record in the NBA? Mar 02 $3,662 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: WOPA Esport vs ex-FUT Academy - Map 2 Winner Feb 19 $3,679 +$4 +0%
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Texas A&M Aggies Feb 19 $3,675 +$4 +0%
Will Nepal reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will Oman reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 18 $523 +$1 +0%
Will Ireland reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 18 $1,397 +$2 +0%
Will Australia reach the semifinals of the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cu Feb 18 $1,653 +$2 +0%
Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 Feb 12 $6 $0 +1%
Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 12 $33 +$1 +3%
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Feb 12 $139 +$1 +1%
Jay Huff: Points O/U 11.5 Feb 12 $67 $0 +0%
Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 12 $73 $0 +0%
Nolan Traoré: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Feb 12 $82 $0 +0%
Kam Jones: Assists O/U 5.5 Feb 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 12 $115 $0 +0%
Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 12 $217 +$4 +2%
Kon Knueppel: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 12 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Feb 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 13.5 Feb 12 $26 $0 +0%
Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5 Feb 12 $57 $0 +0%
Onyeka Okongwu: Assists O/U 2.5 Feb 12 $57 $0 +0%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Feb 12 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $3,383 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $3,389 20d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 89¢ $5 20d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 100¢ $3,100 23d
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 100¢ $260 23d
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 BUY No 99¢ $40 23d
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 100¢ $46 51d
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 100¢ $60 51d
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5 BUY No 100¢ $5 51d
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY No 100¢ $53 51d
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5 BUY No 93¢ $145 51d
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $45 51d
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5 BUY Yes 94¢ $195 51d
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5 BUY No 92¢ $150 51d
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5 BUY No 100¢ $14 51d
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5 BUY No 99¢ $0 51d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 51d
Major US official out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 51d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $93 51d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes $1 51d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $3,706 60d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 100¢ $3,695 84d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes $1 85d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 85d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $189 87d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $999 92d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,583 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,406.58 · official $3,406.58 (match) · 2383 history records