Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc7d9…cb16 crypto 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,226 (+5%) realized +$1,185 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%88W / 57L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days−$169
14 days−$276
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$368
other 21% −$542
sports 12% +$922
politics 2% +$281
tech 1% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -25.3% -32.4% 56% 32% -11.8%
≤30d 51 -21.3% -28.8% 53% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 56 -15.8% -23.8% 55% 38% -6.5%
all 145 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 38% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 38% -5.2%
10% -24.5% 26% -14.3%
15% -31.8% 21% -22.6%
20% -38.5% 16% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$40 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$1,185
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses88 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage596d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 88¢ 100¢ $300 $341 +$41 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $802 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$13 -62%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$189 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$40 +13%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $302 −$277 -92%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $221 +$55 +25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $504 +$181 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $177 −$139 -79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $901 +$28 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $902 +$70 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $502 +$77 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$26 -64%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$14 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $112 −$100 -90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $122 +$124 +102%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $457 +$443 +97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $101 +$57 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 88¢ $201 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 91¢ $50 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $807 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $802 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $301 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $200 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 45h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $301 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $61 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.74 · official $340.74 (match) · 499 history records