Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7d8…2c34 other 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-7%) realized −$163 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%49W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$130
14 days−$123
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$145
sports 44% +$33
world 2% −$50
crypto 2% −$12
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +4.4% -5.6% 25% 25% +1.5%
≤30d 196 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 25% -16.4%
≤90d 196 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 25% -16.4%
all 196 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 25% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 25% -16.4%
10% -27.0% 25% -24.4%
15% -34.0% 25% -31.7%
20% -40.5% 24% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses49 / 147
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)196 / 199
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 +$26 +129%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 +$56 +550%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $41 +$36 +90%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $61 +$75 +123%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $7 −$2 -23%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $30 +$27 +90%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $41 +$32 +79%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $15 +$110 +712%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 +$40 +197%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$61 +596%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $15 −$3 -22%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $81 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $31 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 30¢ $43 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 44h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 21¢ $31 44h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.32 · official $180.32 (match) · 263 history records