Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7d8…a0a6 other 249 markets active 6d ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 535d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46,399 (+5%) realized +$46,364 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%187W / 60L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$4,141per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$24
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$18,402
politics 30% −$4,383
culture 15% +$16,473
world 9% +$2,388
crypto 9% +$14,655
tech 3% +$3,971
sports 1% +$535
economics 0% +$225
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +11.7% +1.0% 67% 67% +2.4%
≤90d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 80% 80% +10.8%
all 247 +7.8% -2.4% 76% 29% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 29% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 15% -14.0%
15% -20.3% 9% -22.3%
20% -28.1% 5% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$4,284) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$626 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$46,364
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses187 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)247 / 249
History coverage535d ⚠
Avg bet$4,141
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 75¢ 100¢ $80 $106 +$27 (+33%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $73 $82 +$9 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 19 $70 +$16 +23%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $43 +$8 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 15 $80 +$36 +45%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $68 +$12 +18%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $107 +$4 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $56 −$19 -34%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 11 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 08 $30 +$19 +64%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $48 +$7 +14%
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 10 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jan 10 $60 +$5 +8%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $40 +$8 +19%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 11 $2,364 −$283 -12%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 07 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $33 +$6 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 02 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 08 $35 +$6 +16%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Oct 29 $52 +$16 +31%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025? Apr 29 $734 +$83 +11%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? Apr 29 $3,719 +$707 +19%
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July? Apr 29 $2,291 +$433 +19%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 29 $2,305 +$638 +28%
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May? Apr 29 $965 +$137 +14%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 29 $20,415 +$1,298 +6%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $8,001 +$1,609 +20%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $76,080 −$6,419 -8%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $31,993 +$1,891 +6%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $25-28m on opening weekend? Apr 28 $2,609 +$66 +2%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend? Apr 28 $4,721 −$1,806 -38%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross between $28-31m on opening weekend? Apr 26 $20 −$18 -95%
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross more than $31m on opening weekend? Apr 25 $4 −$3 -72%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross more than $415m by April 30? Apr 23 $2,771 +$313 +11%
Will 'Sinners' gross less than $44m on opening weekend? Apr 21 $1,681 +$705 +42%
Will 'Sinners' gross between $44m and $49m on opening weekend? Apr 21 $1,840 +$648 +35%
China-EU trade deal before June? Apr 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 20 $10,513 +$403 +4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 20 $6,465 +$84 +1%
Will 'Sinners' gross between $49m and $54m on opening weekend? Apr 20 $121 −$105 -87%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Apr 20 $3,340 +$420 +13%
Will 'Sinners' gross between $32-37m on opening weekend? Apr 20 $2,884 +$69 +2%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 19 $2,445 +$615 +25%
Will 'Sinners' gross more than $37m on opening weekend? Apr 19 $5,247 +$267 +5%
Will 'Sinners' gross between $27-32m on opening weekend? Apr 18 $4,162 +$38 +1%
Will Real Madrid vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Apr 16 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? Apr 16 $30 +$20 +68%
Will 'The Amateur' make between $16-19m on its domestic opening weeken Apr 15 $515 +$77 +15%
Will 'The Amateur' make between $13-16m on its domestic opening weeken Apr 15 $703 +$126 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 81¢ $74 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $86 9d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 22d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $43 22d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 74d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 74d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 74d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $70 74d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY No 69¢ $80 83d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $80 111d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $68 111d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 58¢ $37 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $107 137d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 89¢ $56 146d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $20 170d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $35 170d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 88¢ $48 170d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m BUY Yes 35¢ $4 178d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 BUY Yes 61¢ $6 178d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m BUY Yes 35¢ $14 178d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 BUY Yes 61¢ $24 178d
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 92¢ $60 199d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 96¢ $60 199d
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 83¢ $31 203d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect SELL Yes 85¢ $31 203d
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect BUY Yes 93¢ $34 206d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 91¢ $57 209d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $57 209d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $40 213d
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 BUY No 86¢ $35 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.40 · official $188.40 (match) · 3500 history records