Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc7d8…ddf8 other 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,718 (-1%) realized −$1,717 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$878per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$21
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$58
other 38% −$101
sports 17% −$1,403
crypto 2% −$146
world 2% −$5
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -1.6% -10.9% 4% 0% -11.0%
all 138 -3.2% -12.4% 18% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 12% -10.8%
10% -20.8% 12% -19.3%
15% -28.5% 12% -27.1%
20% -35.5% 9% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,217) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$1,717
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage155d
Avg bet$878
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $658 $657 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,842 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,675 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,194 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $2,277 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $622 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 04 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $779 +$2 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,359 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,277 −$2 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,343 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $800 −$1 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 03 $1,413 −$1,413 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $1,239 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $568 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $569 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $658 10h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $871 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $872 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,208 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,005 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,101 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,103 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 11d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $905 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $907 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,096 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.66 · official $656.66 (match) · 453 history records