Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C7 0xc7d4…07ce sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$575 (-10%) realized −$563 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$25
14 days−$74
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$716
politics 26% −$812
sports 15% −$430
world 1% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +71.1% +54.8% 83% 83% -0.8%
≤30d 17 +8.7% -1.6% 53% 47% -26.6%
≤90d 46 -14.9% -23.0% 46% 41% -12.1%
all 56 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 39% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 39% -18.5%
10% -29.7% 38% -26.3%
15% -36.5% 34% -33.4%
20% -42.7% 27% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$52 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$563
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 63
History coverage578d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $43 $32 −$10 (-24%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 50¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $32 +$22 +69%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $24 +$11 +46%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $159 −$61 -38%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $14 +$10 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Engla Jun 18 $15 +$21 +141%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 AND Jun 17 $15 +$22 +142%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$16 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $40 +$32 +80%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $40 +$4 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $73 −$73 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $99 −$26 -26%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $39 +$59 +150%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 23 $10 +$3 +27%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $10 −$3 -30%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $93 +$34 +37%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $66 +$29 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $35 +$31 +88%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $22 +$13 +59%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $32 +$19 +61%
Will AFC Unirea Slobozia win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $30 +$2 +8%
Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $202 +$90 +44%
FC CFR 1907 Cluj vs. Universitatea Craiova CS: Both Teams to Score May 08 $11 −$11 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $22 −$22 -98%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? May 05 $2,289 +$348 +15%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-12? Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $17 −$17 -100%
FC Argeș Pitești vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Apr 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $11 −$11 -100%
FCV Farul Constanţa vs. AFC Unirea Slobozia: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Apr 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Will FC Botoşani win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $34 +$90 +266%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $123 +$92 +74%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $50 +$35 +70%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $15 +$10 +65%
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 28 $53 +$13 +26%
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? May 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 16 $330 −$258 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 55¢ $54 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 14h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 27h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $24 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $14 31h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1 BUY 48¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Unit BUY 41¢ $19 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovin BUY 32¢ $17 5d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Engla BUY 41¢ $15 6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 33¢ $96 6d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 7d
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 AND BUY 41¢ $15 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 26¢ $15 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $31 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 8¢ $11 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 11d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $70 12d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $71 12d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 12d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $40 12d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 16d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 94¢ $44 17d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.48 · official $39.48 (match) · 159 history records