Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc7cf…14ab crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%43W / 30L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$29
other 6% +$2
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 2 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤90d 10 -6.6% -15.5% 80% 10% -7.9%
all 73 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 40% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 40% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 40% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 40% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 40% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses43 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage235d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $8 −$4 -50%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 02 $138 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 10 $11 +$14 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 8? Apr 10 $124 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 08 $123 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 27 $27 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $8,385 −$8 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $87 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET Feb 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 07 $165 $0 +0%
Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 01 $165 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 28 $64 +$64 +100%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 12 $31 +$31 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 30 $16 +$16 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 22 $22 +$22 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 10 $20 +$20 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 07 $24 +$24 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 03 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Nov 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 29 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 29 $12 +$12 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Nov 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Nov 26 $138 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Nov 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 24 $8 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - November 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 23 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Nov 23 $27 +$27 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 21 $12 +$12 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 20 $18 +$18 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 16 $14 +$14 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11PM ET Nov 14 $22 +$22 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 14 $12 +$12 +100%
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 13 $22 +$22 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $134 1h
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $8 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $28 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 32d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $138 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 66d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 100¢ $124 68d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 100¢ $123 77d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 80d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $352 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $352 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,602 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,603 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,603 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,605 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,605 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,607 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,607 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,608 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,608 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,610 93d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 95d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $27 95d
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 101d
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 101d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 128d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 128d
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.77 · official $133.77 (match) · 155 history records