Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7ce…f3de world 42 markets active 3h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3
other 24% $0
politics 22% +$2
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -2.4% -11.7% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 15 +3.3% -6.5% 33% 7% -9.0%
all 41 +1.9% -7.8% 39% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 5% -9.0%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 5% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage454d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $122 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $81 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 −$3 -26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $8 +$6 +76%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 19 $2 +$1 +37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Sep 10 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $1 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $15 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $23 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $27 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $11 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records