Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7cd…093a sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$207 (-5%) realized −$197 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%21W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$265
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$479
other 33% −$567
crypto 3% −$17
world 2% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -23.4% -30.7% 24% 24% -19.4%
≤30d 84 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% -13.9%
≤90d 84 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% -13.9%
all 84 -15.0% -23.1% 25% 25% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 25% -13.9%
10% -30.5% 24% -22.2%
15% -37.2% 24% -29.7%
20% -43.3% 24% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$36 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses21 / 63
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions11
Markets (closed)84 / 97
History coverage12d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ 26¢ $135 $132 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Croatia 22¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 34¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+19%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Ghana leading at halftime? Yes $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $28 +$2 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $3 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $41 +$89 +218%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $58 +$55 +95%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$121 +238%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $44 −$43 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $41 +$9 +22%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$141 +276%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $41 +$80 +196%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 +$63 +124%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $13 +$87 +669%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$134 +263%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $80 +$106 +133%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $21 +$104 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 22¢ $51 5m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $51 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes $41 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $138 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $61 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 14h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $41 25h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $51 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 25h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $51 25h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $21 25h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Au BUY 16¢ $51 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 17¢ $51 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 31¢ $38 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 29h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 30h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 29¢ $58 30h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay $51 33h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $50 36h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 36h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 36h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 33¢ $41 39h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 39h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.46 · official $427.48 (match) · 169 history records