Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7c3…37ed other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized −$111 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$11
sports 45% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -39.5% -45.3% 12% 12% -28.4%
≤30d 33 -39.5% -45.3% 12% 12% -28.4%
≤90d 33 -39.5% -45.3% 12% 12% -28.4%
all 33 -39.5% -45.3% 12% 12% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 12% -28.4%
10% -50.5% 12% -35.2%
15% -55.3% 9% -41.5%
20% -59.7% 9% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$7 · ×5.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $85 $116 +$31 (+37%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 42¢ 82¢ $15 $29 +$14 (+96%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 84¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+76%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $7 $16 +$9 (+133%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $65 +$19 +29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 +$92 +1116%
Ramón Sosa: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Jonathan David: 1+ shots Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Denis Višinský: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Iqraam Rayners: 1+ assists Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$7 +139%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$32 +312%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $86 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $65 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3h
Ramón Sosa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ shots BUY No 18¢ $1 2d
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.99 · official $221.44 · 47 history records