Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2

7 days+$3

14 days+$3

30 days+$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	79¢	85¢	$77	$83	+$6 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$44	$51	+$7 (+16%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	45¢	40¢	$24	$21	−$2 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez	Jun 10	$13	+$2	+13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Jun 08	$26	+$1	+5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	May 28	$3	−$3	-100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	May 25	$13	+$1	+5%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?	May 16	$34	+$2	+6%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs	May 07	$5	+$6	+117%
Red Wings vs. Panthers	May 07	$8	+$10	+133%
Red Wings vs. Rangers	Apr 11	$8	+$10	+127%
Raptors vs. Suns	Apr 01	$9	−$9	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?	Apr 01	$6	+$6	+93%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	Mar 29	$10	+$4	+39%
Raptors vs. Wizards	Mar 07	$8	+$1	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

politics 50% +$10

sports 18% +$20

other 15% +$6

world 15% −$1

crypto 2% +$6

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tucuman: Nick Hardt vs Bruno Fernandez	BUY Nick Hardt	88¢	$13	2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY No	95¢	$26	7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	14d
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY No	95¢	$13	22d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15?	BUY No	94¢	$34	36d
Red Wings vs. Panthers	BUY Panthers	43¢	$8	57d
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs	BUY Panthers	46¢	$5	61d
Red Wings vs. Rangers	BUY Rangers	44¢	$8	69d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?	BUY Up	51¢	$6	74d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	BUY No	72¢	$10	77d
Raptors vs. Suns	BUY Raptors	57¢	$9	81d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele	BUY Yes	16¢	$44	91d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	79¢	$77	94d
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	45¢	$24	96d
Raptors vs. Wizards	BUY Raptors	87¢	$8	103d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+17.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+9.2%	-1.2%	100%	50%	-2.3%
≤30d	5	-14.1%	-22.3%	80%	20%	-7.0%
≤90d	11	+30.8%	+18.3%	82%	55%	+10.1%
all	12	+29.5%	+17.1%	83%	58%	+9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.1%	58%	+9.8%
10%	+5.9%	42%	-0.7%
15%	-4.3%	42%	-10.3%
20%	-13.7%	33%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.