Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7c1…2e76 crypto 742 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (415 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$806 (-14%) realized −$807 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%313W / 427L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day414.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$820
other 13% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (415 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 740 -10.2% -18.8% 42% 37% -25.3%
≤30d 740 -10.2% -18.8% 42% 37% -25.3%
≤90d 740 -10.2% -18.8% 42% 37% -25.3%
all 740 -10.2% -18.8% 42% 37% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover414.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 37% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 32% -32.4%
15% -33.7% 26% -38.9%
20% -40.2% 17% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$807
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses313 / 427
Open positions2
Markets (closed)740 / 742
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day414.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Up 50¢ 75¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Up 43¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -45%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -28%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $141 −$77 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $192 −$126 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $73 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$19 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$15 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$26 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$23 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$15 -29%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$21 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$22 -43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$25 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$31 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $45 −$29 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$34 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$31 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$39 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$18 -36%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $49 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$13 -30%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $34 −$16 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$27 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $46 −$27 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$17 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$33 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$35 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$29 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$14 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$2 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$19 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$26 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$13 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$2 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$14 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$25 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$12 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$27 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$27 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$26 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $8 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $6 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 26m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 27m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.52 · official $1.93 (match) · 3014 history records