Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc7bd…3438 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-5%) realized −$40 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$54
world 24% +$65
politics 10% −$66
economics 9% +$37
finance 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 100% +11.6%
≤30d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 100% +11.6%
≤90d 5 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +11.0%
all 18 -20.8% -28.3% 56% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 50% -10.9%
10% -35.2% 17% -19.5%
15% -41.4% 17% -27.2%
20% -47.2% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$48 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage208d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $87 $42 −$46 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $161 +$19 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +21%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 16 $82 +$18 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 12 $154 +$32 +21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 20 $27 −$27 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $66 +$9 +14%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 07 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $66 +$121 +183%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 01 $128 +$88 +69%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 29 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files? Nov 29 $48 −$48 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Nov 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $184 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $161 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 3d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $0 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $12 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $5 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $5 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $17 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $5 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $5 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $9 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $5 38d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 82¢ $21 38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $91 38d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $186 38d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $7 70d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $33 70d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $67 70d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $7 70d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $40 70d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 91d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 91d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $75 91d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 66¢ $66 104d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? BUY No 92¢ $92 104d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? BUY No 84¢ $84 107d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 93¢ $187 107d
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 169d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $100 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.10 · official $222.10 (match) · 52 history records