Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7ba…c2fe crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-39%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$77
crypto 37% −$51
sports 15% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 20% 20% -38.9%
≤30d 6 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 17% -47.1%
≤90d 6 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 17% -47.1%
all 7 -59.7% -63.5% 14% 14% -65.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.5% 14% -65.2%
10% -67.0% 14% -68.5%
15% -70.2% 14% -71.6%
20% -73.1% 14% -74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage106d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$15 -70%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $30 +$20 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$19 -52%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 8d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 104d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records