Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7b9…30b5 politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$638 (-0%) realized −$638 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 110L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,155per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$29
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$282
politics 38% −$67
sports 16% −$275
culture 3% −$4
world 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$22
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +3.2% -6.6% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 88 -11.9% -20.3% 7% 3% -10.6%
all 131 -2.0% -11.4% 16% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 11% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 8% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,618) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$22 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$357
Realized−$638
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,155
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $357 $357 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $476 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5,104 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,541 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,815 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $975 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,391 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $62 +$112 +180%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 04 $55 +$70 +129%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,061 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,204 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $316 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $479 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,445 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,514 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $224 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $224 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,839 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $475 30m
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $476 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $541 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $542 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $569 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $569 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $534 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $535 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $266 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $266 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,040 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $856 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $857 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $852 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $853 7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $357 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,222 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,142 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,143 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,074 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,075 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $973 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $975 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,013 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,014 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,267 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,269 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.67 · official $356.67 (match) · 392 history records