Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7b8…4769 sports 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-0%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%25W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$10
other 28% −$82
politics 26% −$16
economics 6% −$5
crypto 3% −$5
culture 2% −$2
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 80 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 92 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
all 334 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses25 / 309
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)334 / 335
History coverage654d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 20 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $124 −$2 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $76 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $71 $0 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $31 $0 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 08 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $86 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $168 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 93¢ $34 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 24h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $25 25h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $26 32h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $31 32h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $31 39h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $29 40h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $28 2d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $29 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $9 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $37 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $19 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $1 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $8 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 92¢ $15 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.23 · official $37.89 (match) · 1266 history records