Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc7b6…cfe5 sports 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,916 (-13%) realized −$9,353 · open +$437
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%159W / 255L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$110
14 days−$167
30 days−$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$6,998
other 35% −$1,195
crypto 2% +$31
world 1% −$65
politics 1% −$9
tech 1% −$432
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 23 -16.3% -24.3% 39% 26% -16.0%
≤90d 68 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 34% -19.9%
all 414 -17.3% -25.2% 38% 36% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 36% -22.2%
10% -32.3% 33% -29.6%
15% -38.9% 28% -36.4%
20% -44.8% 20% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$98 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$1,665
Realized−$9,353
Unrealized+$437
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses159 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions1
Markets (closed)414 / 415
History coverage603d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 70¢ $1,228 $1,665 +$437 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $96 −$19 -20%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $176 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $414 +$15 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,247 −$107 -9%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $38 +$15 +38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $31 +$5 +15%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $58 −$27 -46%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $60 −$59 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $104 −$101 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $582 −$576 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $1,154 −$1,140 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1,757 −$111 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $589 +$686 +116%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $31 −$30 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $555 +$942 +170%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,226 −$170 -14%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $499 −$180 -36%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $436 +$190 +44%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $614 −$34 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $93 +$62 +67%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 May 12 $244 −$240 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $255 −$11 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $178 +$77 +43%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 10 $65 +$113 +175%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $32 +$33 +101%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $35 −$3 -8%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $115 −$113 -98%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 29 $198 −$195 -98%
Abidjan 2: Hamish Stewart vs Aditya Balsekar Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 28 $390 −$383 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $306 −$30 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $367 +$420 +115%
Cagliari: Patrick Kypson vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 28 $112 −$110 -98%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 27 $59 −$58 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 19 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $114 −$112 -99%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $82 +$32 +39%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 19 $222 −$221 -100%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $161 +$61 +38%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $123 +$38 +30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $59 +$65 +110%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $155 −$152 -98%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $127 +$29 +23%
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner Apr 18 $59 +$68 +115%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 12 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $245 +$145 +59%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $509 −$264 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,246 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $77 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $177 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $429 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $566 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $55 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $623 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $96 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $359 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $114 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $53 10d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $53 10d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $38 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 29¢ $38 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $36 10d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 23¢ $36 10d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 10d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 19¢ $31 10d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $58 10d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 15d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $46 15d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 25¢ $104 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 37¢ $116 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $466 22d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $1,154 23d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,152 23d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,218 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 97¢ $1,221 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,664.72 · official $1,641.11 · 987 history records