Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc7b6…eb0d sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$89 (+8%) realized +$90 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$75
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$137
sports 44% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 60% -2.2%
≤30d 21 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 62% -1.9%
≤90d 21 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 62% -1.9%
all 21 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 62% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 62% -1.9%
10% -13.2% 48% -11.3%
15% -21.6% 33% -19.9%
20% -29.3% 19% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $7 +$11 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $78 +$30 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $89 −$12 -13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $18 −$17 -98%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$23 +119%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 +$15 +31%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $27 +$24 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +148%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$16 +31%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $123 +$25 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $58 −$20 -34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $42 +$17 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $75 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $7 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $78 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 73¢ $78 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $89 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $18 2d
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 58¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 3d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $27 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $44 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $25 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $66 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $110 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $85 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.69 · official $148.69 (match) · 44 history records