Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:17:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc7b5…74c0 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$744 (-17%) realized −$587 · open −$157
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$593
sports 8% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -71.4%
≤30d 4 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -71.4%
≤90d 4 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -71.4%
all 4 -30.6% -37.2% 25% 25% -71.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 25% -71.4%
10% -43.2% 25% -74.1%
15% -48.7% 25% -76.6%
20% -53.7% 25% -78.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$223 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$2,616
Realized−$587
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage13d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $1,896 $1,835 −$60 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $669 $570 −$99 (-15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 73¢ $87 $89 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $92 −$66 -71%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $85 +$115 +134%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $198 −$168 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $443 −$435 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes $26 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 10h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $185 11h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 23h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 26h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $83 32h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 32h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $89 44h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 44h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $85 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $30 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $49 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $101 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $111 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 5d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $625 5d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $87 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $214 5d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 6d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 9d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 9d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $293 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,616.25 · official $2,616.51 (match) · 41 history records