Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc7b4…fdc7 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 355d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,142 (+48%) realized +$1,142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$184
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,110
other 7% +$183
world 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.2% +146.3% 100% 100% +146.3%
≤30d 4 +46.1% +32.2% 75% 75% +10.4%
≤90d 6 +25.5% +13.6% 67% 67% +32.9%
all 7 +31.1% +18.6% 71% 71% +36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.6% 71% +36.3%
10% +7.3% 57% +23.2%
15% -3.1% 57% +11.3%
20% -12.6% 57% +0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$259 vs −$50 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.82 per $1 lost it wins $12.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

355d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage355d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$88 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$96 +95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $611 +$106 +17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $995 +$682 +68%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 09 $498 +$322 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $193 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 50¢ $193 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 43¢ $331 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 28¢ $204 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 47¢ $406 28d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,677 30d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $995 32d
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) SELL PSG 97¢ $820 355d
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) BUY PSG 59¢ $498 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records