Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C7 0xc7b3…d0ee crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$147 (+16%) realized +$114 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$162
other 5% −$34
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +9.5%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +9.5%
≤90d 45 -28.8% -35.6% 40% 40% +2.5%
all 45 -28.8% -35.6% 40% 40% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 40% +2.5%
10% -41.8% 38% -7.3%
15% -47.4% 27% -16.3%
20% -52.6% 18% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage95d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 31¢ 50¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $96 +$146 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $145 −$32 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$37 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$35 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $100 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) Mar 21 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 21 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 20 $2 +$1 +62%
BNB Up or Down - March 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 20 $3 +$1 +35%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 20 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 20 $6 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 20 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 20 $8 +$4 +49%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.68 · official $84.32 · 122 history records