Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc7af…252d crypto 60 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-10%) realized +$0 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate77%44W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$3
world 13% −$22
other 10% +$3
weather 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -8.5% -17.2% 75% 19% -11.3%
≤30d 57 -7.6% -16.4% 77% 18% -11.1%
≤90d 57 -7.6% -16.4% 77% 18% -11.1%
all 57 -7.6% -16.4% 77% 18% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 18% -11.1%
10% -24.4% 4% -19.6%
15% -31.7% 4% -27.3%
20% -38.4% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses44 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 14¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $3 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL No 95¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 171 history records