Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7ac…f143 other 220 markets active 15h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$393 (-11%) realized −$396 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%74W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$47
14 days−$59
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$399
weather 4% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -54.8% -59.1% 23% 8% -42.6%
≤30d 45 -30.8% -37.4% 33% 22% -21.6%
≤90d 167 -21.6% -29.0% 34% 23% -21.6%
all 219 -20.0% -27.7% 34% 24% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 24% -21.3%
10% -34.6% 17% -28.8%
15% -40.9% 11% -35.7%
20% -46.7% 7% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$396
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses74 / 145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)219 / 220
History coverage121d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 69¢ 90¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$6 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$13 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $16 +$7 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$9 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $16 −$7 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$6 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $13 −$10 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $24 +$16 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$2 -27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $14 +$4 +33%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $27 −$12 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $4 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $38 −$4 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $19 −$8 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $9 −$3 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $13 +$4 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.24 · official $14.24 (match) · 844 history records