Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:47:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7aa…20ba world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$5
other 22% +$5
politics 8% −$4
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.0%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 4% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage450d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $92 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $73 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $76 +$5 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $5 $0 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $32 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $3 $0 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 11 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 10? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Will BSW be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 20 $12 +$3 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 29 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $4 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $40 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $49 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $54 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $54 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $54 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $18 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $10 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $18 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 178 history records