trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 70% | 30% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 70% | 30% | -7.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 70% | 30% | -7.0% |
| all | 10 | +7.9% | -2.4% | 70% | 30% | -7.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.4% | 30% | -7.0% |
| 10% | -11.7% | 30% | -15.9% |
| 15% | -20.2% | 0% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -28.1% | 0% | -31.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | Yes | 87¢ | 84¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 15 | $3 | $0 | -13% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | Jun 15 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +25% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +28% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +27% |