Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

C7 0xc7a7…ecdd weather 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$671 (-24%) realized −$318 · open −$352

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip

Net edge-70%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$930per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,941now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-68.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-65.3%	-68.6%	0%	0%	-68.6%
≤30d	1	-65.3%	-68.6%	0%	0%	-68.6%
≤90d	1	-65.3%	-68.6%	0%	0%	-68.6%
all	1	-65.3%	-68.6%	0%	0%	-68.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.6%	0%	-68.6%
10%	-71.6%	0%	-71.6%
15%	-74.4%	0%	-74.4%
20%	-76.9%	0%	-76.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -65% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$318 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,941

Realized−$318

Unrealized−$352

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$930

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 27?	Yes	94¢	71¢	$1,786	$1,343	−$443 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27?	No	85¢	100¢	$508	$599	+$91 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?	Jun 27	$487	−$318	-65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27?	BUY No	85¢	$512	1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?	SELL No	30¢	$145	1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun	BUY Yes	94¢	$1,791	2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?	SELL No	13¢	$24	2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 27?	BUY No	69¢	$487	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,941.26 · official $1,941.26 (match) · 5 history records