Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a3…7b06 weather 190 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-24%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%62W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 46% +0.0%
≤30d 98 -3.4% -12.6% 35% 32% -24.4%
≤90d 190 -12.8% -21.1% 33% 31% -34.0%
all 190 -12.8% -21.1% 33% 31% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 31% -34.0%
10% -28.7% 29% -40.3%
15% -35.5% 26% -46.1%
20% -41.9% 22% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses62 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$5 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +138%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +406%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +289%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records