Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a2…6ddd other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$39
sports 20% −$15
politics 9% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 163 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage136d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $484 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $295 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 26 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 25 $211 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $240 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $463 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 24 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $527 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $186 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $267 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $594 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $392 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $293 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $435 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 2h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 3h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $49 11h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $49 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $49 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 17h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 19h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 29h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 30h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 31h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 34h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 46h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $4 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.50 · official $48.50 (match) · 1392 history records