Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a2…9721 sports 216 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$77 (+3%) realized +$82 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%115W / 96L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$3
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$90
sports 37% +$14
crypto 16% $0
world 6% −$41
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 33% -22.9%
≤30d 15 -22.1% -29.5% 47% 40% -18.4%
≤90d 49 -19.9% -27.5% 47% 45% -14.4%
all 211 -0.4% -9.8% 55% 49% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 49% -7.1%
10% -18.5% 44% -16.0%
15% -26.4% 40% -24.1%
20% -33.6% 30% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses115 / 96
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)211 / 216
History coverage121d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 50¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -47%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $5 +$8 +152%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $10 +$10 +101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$40 +79%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $30 +$27 +90%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $6 +$7 +114%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Mar 30 $5 +$4 +81%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5 Mar 30 $20 +$19 +95%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $5 +$3 +52%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $25 +$10 +40%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $8 +$12 +155%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $30 +$11 +36%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Mar 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 8h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 8h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Will Croatia win on 2 BUY 14¢ $21 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $41 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $11 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $10 8d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $20 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in BUY $5 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY $3 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 13d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 13d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 17d
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Trail Blazers 54¢ $5 57d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 39¢ $5 57d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 57d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.38 · official $36.99 · 499 history records