Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc79a…6d28 weather 974 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$241 (-1%) realized −$246 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%889W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$69
14 days−$44
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$266
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.4% -11.7% 96% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 310 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 961 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 2% -10.9%
all 961 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -10.9%
10% -19.4% 1% -19.4%
15% -27.2% 1% -27.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses889 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)961 / 974
History coverage74d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 961 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? No 97¢ 99¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 96¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? No 95¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $40 33h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 44h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 47h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 47h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $40 47h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.72 · official $544.74 (match) · 1972 history records