Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc799…fcce politics 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$8
other 28% −$3
politics 20% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 15 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 7% -8.6%
all 73 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage288d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 68¢ 52¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-23%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $125 +$6 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $89 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 +$4 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -16%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $4 $0 -10%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 21 $17 $0 -2%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 17 $3 $0 +10%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 +2%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $17 $0 -1%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $9 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 02 $23 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 01 $9 $0 +2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $19 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $51 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $51 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $36 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $12 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $50 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 255 history records