Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc798…6254 other 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 691d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$702 (-6%) realized −$628 · open −$74
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%17W / 195L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$80
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$82
other 23% −$33
sports 6% −$612
crypto 4% +$4
world 2% −$13
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -9.7% -18.3% 1% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 180 -10.1% -18.7% 2% 0% -14.4%
≤90d 181 -10.1% -18.7% 2% 0% -14.0%
all 212 -9.4% -18.0% 8% 0% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -14.8%
10% -25.8% 0% -23.0%
15% -33.0% 0% -30.4%
20% -39.6% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

691d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$628
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses17 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)212 / 223
History coverage691d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? No 69¢ 46¢ $34 $23 −$12 (-34%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-22%)
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $34 $21 −$13 (-38%)
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 84¢ 58¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 50¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 38¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Printr FDV above $80M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-54%)
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 47¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 20¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Will Yvette Cooper be in the Burnham cabinet? No 14¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will 100T make a roster change before August? No 70¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima Jun 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -57%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 25 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 25 $26 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 25 $4 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 25 $7 −$2 -25%
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 25 $34 −$3 -9%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 25 $8 $0 -2%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 25 $9 −$2 -26%
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-03 House seat? Jun 25 $2 $0 -25%
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio Jun 25 $4 −$2 -59%
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -37%
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -19%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? Jun 25 $11 −$3 -26%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat? Jun 25 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential Jun 25 $13 −$3 -25%
Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat? Jun 25 $17 $0 -2%
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater th Jun 25 $15 −$1 -6%
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? Jun 25 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat? Jun 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Jun 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 25 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat? Jun 24 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat? Jun 24 $4 $0 -3%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 24 $14 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-18 House seat? Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-04 House seat? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 24 $15 $0 -1%
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $28 23m
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? SELL No $1 1h
Will Marcelo Brigadeiro win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election SELL No $4 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election SELL Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No $2 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 2h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 3h
Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 3h
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY No $4 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 4h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 58¢ $26 4h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 4h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4h
Printr FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 6h
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 6h
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 6h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 43¢ $4 8h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 43¢ $4 8h
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 9h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 69¢ $34 10h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 69¢ $34 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 10h
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.28 · official $104.28 (match) · 587 history records