Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C7 0xc792…4900 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$300 (-18%) realized −$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -35.9%
≤30d 4 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤90d 4 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -31.8%
all 4 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 0% -31.8%
10% -30.8% 0% -38.4%
15% -37.5% 0% -44.3%
20% -43.7% 0% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$102 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage8d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $83 −$16 -19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,238 −$370 -30%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $239 −$15 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $88 −$6 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $68 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $664 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $204 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $223 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $224 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $82 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $296 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $88 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $239 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records