Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc790…e08b other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 45L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$7
politics 21% −$4
sports 16% −$4
economics 16% −$3
tech 8% +$13
finance 4% −$5
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 33 +0.2% -9.3% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 53 -1.8% -11.2% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$518) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage231d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 24 $114 +$4 +4%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $108 +$7 +6%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $957 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $959 −$2 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $962 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $113 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $116 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $117 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $117 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 13 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 13 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 13 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $520 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $523 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $526 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 01 $67 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 22 $23 −$3 -13%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $24 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 13 $24 $0 -1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 01 $21 +$1 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $107 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 14 $22 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $118 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $114 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $111 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 22d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 22d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $110 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 22d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $115 25d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 94¢ $108 36d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $956 50d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $957 50d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $957 50d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $959 50d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $960 50d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $962 50d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $960 50d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $961 50d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $961 50d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $962 50d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $962 50d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 100¢ $964 50d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $964 50d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 100¢ $966 50d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $962 50d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $964 50d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $112 53d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $113 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records