Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

C7 0xc78d…e9f0 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$26 (-9%) realized −$16 · open −$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%5W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day25.5pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-18.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-9.9%	-18.4%	25%	25%	-24.2%
≤30d	20	-9.9%	-18.4%	25%	25%	-24.2%
≤90d	20	-9.9%	-18.4%	25%	25%	-24.2%
all	20	-9.9%	-18.4%	25%	25%	-24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.4%	25%	-24.2%
10% ← realistic here	-26.2%	25%	-31.5%
15%	-33.4%	20%	-38.1%
20%	-39.9%	20%	-44.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -30% → late +10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized−$16

Unrealized−$10

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses5 / 15

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day25.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye?	Yes	36¢	36¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Vitality	42¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$1	-23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	+$24	+474%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+62%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff	Jun 19	$16	−$16	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$9	$0	-1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	−$1	-5%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 19	$7	−$1	-8%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 19	$5	−$1	-12%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	Jun 19	$5	+$7	+129%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$16	−$16	-100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$60	−$1	-2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$8	+$3	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	38m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$4	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Vitality	42¢	$10	2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	SELL Team Falcons	90¢	$98	2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	37¢	$25	3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	39¢	$10	3h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff	BUY K27	13¢	$10	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	57¢	$9	3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	40¢	$10	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	46¢	$19	3h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$7	4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	5h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff	BUY K27	23¢	$6	5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	37¢	$6	5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	5h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY G2	24¢	$5	12h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	BUY 1WIN	43¢	$5	12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$7	17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	17h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	88¢	$59	18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$9	21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$60	21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$4	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.67 · official $19.67 (match) · 44 history records