Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc788…136b politics 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate10%5W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 33% −$2
other 19% −$1
politics 13% −$4
sports 12% −$1
culture 9% $0
world 8% $0
crypto 5% +$4
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 +6.6% -3.6% 14% 14% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +4.6% -5.4% 10% 10% -9.5%
all 49 +0.7% -8.9% 10% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses5 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage235d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $593 $593 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $255 $255 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 29 $353 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 29 $405 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 10 $6 +$4 +58%
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $40 −$3 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 25 $6 $0 -0%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $583 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 05 $377 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 05 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 05 $77 $0 -0%
Will Nepali Communist Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of R Mar 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of February 202 Feb 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $463 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $402 $0 -0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Jan 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in January? Jan 06 $124 $0 +0%
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats Jan 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Abdoulaye Kourouma win the 2025 Guinean presidential election? Jan 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Dec 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Dec 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $21 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Dec 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Nov 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chase Infiniti win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Aw Nov 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Nov 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 11 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $255 55m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $593 58m
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $353 59m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $405 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $405 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $353 1h
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? SELL No 27¢ $1 23d
Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? BUY No 27¢ $1 23d
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? SELL No 38¢ $3 23d
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? BUY No 38¢ $3 23d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 SELL Yes 76¢ $24 23d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 SELL Yes 77¢ $6 23d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 SELL Yes 77¢ $8 23d
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 BUY Yes 81¢ $40 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 25d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 35d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $6 35d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 50d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 51d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $6 74d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $6 75d
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 95d
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 95d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 103d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 103d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 116d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $583 116d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $37 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.77 · official $847.77 (match) · 107 history records