Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc788…393e sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$268 (-32%) realized −$268 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$413
14 days−$478
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$467
other 19% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -39.3% -45.1% 33% 29% -65.5%
≤30d 30 -50.1% -54.9% 30% 20% -60.8%
≤90d 30 -50.1% -54.9% 30% 20% -60.8%
all 30 -50.1% -54.9% 30% 20% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.9% 20% -60.8%
10% -59.2% 20% -64.5%
15% -63.1% 20% -68.0%
20% -66.7% 17% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$27 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage17d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$30 +120%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $60 −$14 -23%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $23 +$31 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 +$6 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -79%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $100 +$1 +1%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 26¢ $6 55m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 93¢ $200 58m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $91 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $13 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $2 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $9 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 67¢ $44 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 30¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $3 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $6 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $8 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $18 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over $5 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $14 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $18 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $23 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $23 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $14 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 14¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records