Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc784…4802 weather 1481 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$182 (-2%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%1403W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day76.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$20
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +3.6% -6.3% 97% 8% -6.5%
≤30d 269 +0.2% -9.3% 92% 17% -9.6%
≤90d 1459 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 3% -10.5%
all 1459 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 3% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 1% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1403 / 56
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1459 / 1481
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? No 94¢ 95¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 95¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? No 95¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 93¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? No 94¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? No 95¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? No 94¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? No 94¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? No 91¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? No 78¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.17 · official $119.17 (match) · 3500 history records