Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc781…59d7 world 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186,673 (-19%) realized −$187,716 · open +$1,043
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%118W / 15L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,789per market
Trades / day81.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$53,479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164,468
7 days−$159,456
14 days−$155,746
30 days−$150,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$922
other 35% +$3,552
crypto 11% +$4,339
politics 8% +$1,093
tech 4% +$1,282
economics 1% +$2,205
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +6.8% -3.4% 91% 21% -64.4%
≤30d 91 +1.5% -8.1% 87% 12% -27.7%
≤90d 133 +16.7% +5.6% 89% 12% -22.5%
all 133 +16.7% +5.6% 89% 12% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.6% 12% -22.5%
10% -4.5% 5% -29.9%
15% ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -36.7%
20% -22.2% 2% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$8,970) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$11,430 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$53,479
Realized−$187,716
Unrealized+$1,043
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses118 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)133 / 142
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$6,789
Trades / day81.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $36,702 $36,893 +$191 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $9,776 $9,986 +$210 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $4,662 $5,351 +$689 (+15%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $420 $482 +$62 (+15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $318 $351 +$33 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $193 $192 −$1 (-0%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 14,000 in 2026? Yes 65¢ 38¢ $133 $78 −$55 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 28¢ $156 $69 −$87 (-56%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $14 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 53¢ 33¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 17 $41,645 −$41,655 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? Jun 17 $122,965 −$122,965 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A Jun 17 $102 +$152 +149%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $20,458 +$1,300 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $9,421 +$616 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3,721 +$660 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1,606 +$94 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $102 +$11 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,983 +$169 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4,298 +$505 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $16,303 +$169 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $247 +$9 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $773 +$30 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $77 +$3 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $17,033 +$979 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1,199 +$101 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $585 −$36 -6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $1,160 +$12 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $322 $0 +0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $1,362 +$14 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $7,112 +$256 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $796 +$5 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $8,970 +$85 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6,525 +$66 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $18 +$2 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,925 +$85 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $829 −$99 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $6,103 +$283 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $939 +$71 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8,519 +$77 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $11,490 +$866 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $23,902 +$942 +4%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $918 +$71 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,194 +$51 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,422 +$71 +5%
Exact Score: Denmark 0 - 0 Ukraine? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $40 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,961 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1,994 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 25h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 25h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $84 26h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $100 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $122 30h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 34h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $6,803 34h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,424 35h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 41h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,207 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $162 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $58 42h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $58 42h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $67 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $58 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $58 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $104 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $983 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $148 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $246 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $148 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $492 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $148 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $148 43h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $174 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,479.04 · official $53,478.85 (match) · 3500 history records