Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc780…6306 crypto 138 markets active 7d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-9%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$66
other 12% +$15
sports 7% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -94.8% -95.3% 0% 0% -95.3%
≤30d 61 -35.5% -41.6% 28% 21% -24.8%
≤90d 137 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 31% -21.9%
all 137 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 31% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -21.9%
10% -31.7% 26% -29.4%
15% -38.3% 21% -36.2%
20% -44.3% 16% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -79%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -13%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Chile? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Chile leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Hungary 2 - 1 Kazakhstan? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Chile? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 28 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 28 $7 −$4 -62%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 28 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $17 +$22 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -47%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 27 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 27 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 27 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 27 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 27 $4 +$4 +99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Draw at halftime? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime? May 27 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 27 $6 +$6 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 27 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 27 $4 +$5 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 27 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 27 $4 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) SELL South Africa 0¢ $0 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 61¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 64¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 7d
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Hungary 2 - 1 Kazakhstan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 7d
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY South Africa 1¢ $1 7d
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Chile? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 423 history records