Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C7 0xc779…a904 crypto 1755 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (233 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$3,306 (+25%) realized +$3,306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%879W / 503L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day233.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7,451
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (233 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 833 +8.4% -2.0% 48% 48% +20.0%
≤30d 1382 +41.5% +28.0% 64% 64% +41.6%
≤90d 1382 +41.5% +28.0% 64% 64% +41.6%
all 1382 +41.5% +28.0% 64% 64% +41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover233.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.0% 64% +41.6%
10% ← realistic here +15.8% 64% +28.0%
15% +4.6% 63% +15.7%
20% -5.7% 63% +4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses879 / 503
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1382 / 1755
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day233.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1382 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 0 BV Borussia 09 Dortmund? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 41m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $9 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records