trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 50% | 50% | +6.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 80% | 20% | -13.8% |
| all | 14 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 86% | 14% | -13.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 14% | -13.5% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 14% | -21.8% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 14% | -29.3% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 14% | -36.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $445 | $442 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $228 | +$222 | +97% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 03 | $154 | −$153 | -99% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 09 | $108 | +$64 | +60% |
| Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | May 09 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $150? | May 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | May 09 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? | May 09 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Apr 15 | $171 | −$168 | -98% |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of January | Feb 05 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Feb 05 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by January 31? | Feb 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December? | Jan 10 | $21 | $0 | +0% |