Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc772…88af other 30 markets active 1d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$41 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$21
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$23
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.0% -32.2% 25% 25% -15.8%
≤30d 6 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 33% -8.0%
≤90d 29 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 41% -8.6%
all 29 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 41% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 41% -8.6%
10% -24.5% 41% -17.3%
15% -31.8% 34% -25.3%
20% -38.5% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage50d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$33 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$43 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$25 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $125 +$54 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $76 −$8 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $92 +$27 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $40 −$24 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $13 +$6 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $11 +$15 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $3 +$10 +320%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 26 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $49 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $54 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $103 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $67 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $68 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $76 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $76 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $57 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $57 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $38 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $43 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 10d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 33d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 33d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 34d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 37d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.89 (match) · 71 history records