Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc771…6f90 crypto 1040 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$754 (-4%) realized −$749 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%582W / 454L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$15
14 days−$365
30 days−$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1,011
weather 18% +$63
other 4% −$27
tech 1% +$25
sports 1% +$19
finance 0% +$6
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 46% -6.7%
≤30d 84 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 37% -40.5%
≤90d 524 -8.1% -16.9% 51% 41% -16.7%
all 1036 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 39% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -14.3%
10% -22.5% 30% -22.5%
15% -30.0% 24% -30.0%
20% -36.9% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$749
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses582 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1036 / 1040
History coverage129d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1036 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 +$17 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$15 +69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$7 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 −$25 -89%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$13 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 $0 -1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$39 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$38 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $8 21m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $36 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $19 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $18 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $3 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $23 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.49 · official $57.49 (match) · 2855 history records