Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc770…8dbb sports 1195 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,272 (-2%) realized −$1,289 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%679W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$255est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days+$106
14 days+$445
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$851
other 19% −$923
crypto 0% +$8
world 0% −$140
politics 0% +$14
weather 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +30.7% +18.2% 61% 58% -7.2%
≤30d 274 +9.2% -1.2% 60% 58% -8.5%
≤90d 613 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 57% -13.6%
all 1165 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 57% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 57% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 50% -20.6%
15% -26.8% 37% -28.3%
20% -34.0% 27% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$640
Realized−$1,289
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses679 / 486
Est. fees paid−$255
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1165 / 1195
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $78 $96 +$18 (+22%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 87¢ $72 $87 +$15 (+21%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $45 $54 +$8 (+19%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-5%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $26 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Will William Pacho score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 46¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+283%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $17 $12 −$4 (-26%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-31%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $66 −$3 -5%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $24 −$4 -16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $54 +$46 +86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $29 +$21 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $84 +$16 +18%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$21 +78%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $74 +$23 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $28 +$22 +75%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $13 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $19 +$31 +163%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $29 +$21 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $74 +$26 +35%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 +$39 +64%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $80 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $32 +$9 +28%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $53 +$47 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $54 +$46 +85%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $84 +$16 +19%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $32 +$18 +54%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14 +$36 +245%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $59 +$38 +65%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $69 +$30 +43%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $19 +$31 +163%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $57 +$38 +66%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$25 +122%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $81 +$19 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $22 +$27 +122%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 −$8 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 +$56 +54%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $16 +$24 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $62 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 3h
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $65 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $47 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $97 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $29 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $81 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $34 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $74 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $84 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $68 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $27 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $22 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U BUY 29¢ $51 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 29h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U BUY 53¢ $101 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 47¢ $102 29h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 33h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $640.10 · official $640.10 (match) · 3500 history records