Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C7 0xc76c…c04a crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%86W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 58% -8.9%
≤30d 65 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 58% -8.9%
≤90d 65 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 58% -8.9%
all 130 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 66% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 66% -12.4%
10% -22.8% 29% -20.8%
15% -30.2% 25% -28.5%
20% -37.1% 20% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses86 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage130d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 46¢ 36¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$14 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.33 · official $1.77 · 268 history records