Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc76c…0e55 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 49L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$19
14 days+$14
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$40
sports 19% −$9
other 13% +$4
politics 7% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 37 +0.4% -9.1% 41% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 49 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 8% -9.0%
all 80 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.9% 1% -17.9%
15% -27.7% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage486d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $118 +$6 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $120 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $121 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $302 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $202 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $131 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $118 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $59 +$11 +19%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $181 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $118 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $119 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $537 −$5 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $110 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $3 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $54 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $112 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $115 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $120 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $114 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $115 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $55 +$7 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $68 +$13 +19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $93 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $157 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $193 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $101 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $609 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $106 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $553 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $552 +$2 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $550 +$2 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $427 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $124 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $118 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $68 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $52 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $120 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $94 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $121 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $93 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $105 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $85 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $134 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $131 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $85 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $0.00 · 339 history records